October Surprise
In the politics of the United States, an October surprise is a news event that may influence the outcome of an upcoming November election (particularly one for the presidency), whether deliberately planned or spontaneously occurring. Because the date for national elections (as well as many state and local elections) is in early November (with in-person early voting, absentee, and mail-in voting also generally taking place in most states during the period of late-September to early November), events that take place in October have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters and allow less time to take remedial action; thus, relatively last-minute news stories could either change the course of an election or reinforce the inevitable. Common political events that have been referred to as an October surprise include political scandals, sudden international crises, criminal investigations, health issues involving a candidate, news leaks, natural disasters, and major policy announcements.
The term "October surprise" was coined by William Casey when he served as campaign manager of Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign; however, there were October election-upending events that predated the coining of the term.
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